Re: $650 fraudulent unauthorized use Charge back. Any hope.
Your major mistake was shipping without signature confirmation. Tracking IS delivery confirmation (at least as I understand it) but PayPal seller protection requires than any item above $250 be shipped with signature confirmation.
I would still provide PayPal with the tracking information, but whether or not they accept that is up to them. In my experience, it would be unlikely. If you were a long-time volume seller and they wanted to keep you happy, then MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, they would take the loss. But right now, if they do, look at it as a gift from God - it would be just that unusual.
Sorry for the bad news.
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