Corona Virus

[Zol]

Originally Posted by agent006140

You guys are spending too much time selling/buying/chatting online.
It is real,800 plus numbers reported in CHina,the actual numbers should be ten times more.

Exactly my thoughts too!! They're are not telling us every thing...... I believe it's man-made!!

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by 997turbo

Data from China shows the majority of people with Covid-19 only suffer mild symptoms, then recover

Doesn't take a genius to know that a worldwide 5% serious/critical rate means a 95% mild case rate.

Just so everyone knows, the serious/critical rate in the US is currently 0.4%, with only 64 cases currently.

[phaz0rz]

There's something wonky about the map of USA cases on arcgis.



They're reporting 120 recoveries in USA. If you click state by state, there aren't any states reporting recoveries - just deaths.

Then there's a random spot in the midwest with -120 active cases, somehow



They maybe grouped all recoveries for the country into one pinpoint? I don't understand why they would do that though, rather than listing recoveries with the state statistics.

[Zol]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

You're implying it's racist to call it "china virus" (even though I've never called it that). Viruses have always been named after where they originated.

Spanish Flu
Ebola
West Nile Virus
Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
Lyme Disease
Ross River Fever
Guinea Worm
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
Valley Fever
Omsk Hemorrhagic Fever
Norovirus
Zika Fever
Marburg Virus Disease
German Measles
Japanese Encephalitis
Lassa Fever
Legionnaire's Disease

Are all of these also instances of racism by the scientific community?

You know to these people, everything Trump says or does is bad one way or another... They don't even care about being a little bit honest at all....

[Toolman89]

Originally Posted by 997turbo

ok man.
but if you don't believe anything from china gov
you shouldnt believe US gov as well

we are at today,look this video,not sure what I should say.
WHEN not spread in USA:Great china!a nice leader XI.doing well!
WHEN spreaded in USA:god damn CHINA VIRUS!!!CHINESE VIRUS!!LIED ABOUT WUHAN NUMBERS NOT SURE ITS REAL !!

It's just a tactic so that western citizens don't blame the incompetence of their own governments and they can blame shift to China. China did cover up some things but we all saw it unfolding and our governments barely reacted at all. None of them wanted to take the economic hit of closing borders in case they ended up looking stupid. It's one problem with our system.. it would've been political suicide had they made that decision and it turned out to be wrong. So instead they do nothing and wait until it's too late. Now they've screwed up worse, but because they all hesitated, including their political opponents, they've all made the same mistake and they're all in it together and therefore it isn't political suicide.

[phaz0rz]

In other news..

The death rate has been rising by at least a half percent per day for the past week. It's up to 10.22% as of the 19th.. so I expect at least 10.72% when this chart is updated with today's statistics.



3/19 : 10.22%
3/18 : 9.5%
3/17 : 8.81%
3/16 : 8.25%
3/15 : 7.76%
3/14 : 7.13%

Somewhat of an alarming trend, tbqh. 50% death rate within 3 months?

[james13v]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

In other news..

The death rate has been rising by at least a half percent per day for the past week. It's up to 10.22% as of the 19th.. so I expect at least 10.72% when this chart is updated with today's statistics.



3/19 : 10.22%
3/18 : 9.5%
3/17 : 8.81%
3/16 : 8.25%
3/15 : 7.76%
3/14 : 7.13%

Somewhat of an alarming trend, tbqh. 50% death rate within 3 months?

What exactly is this based on? I mean, 10% death rate is only valid when it comes to people about 80 years old.

And even if your numbers are accurate, there is ZERO reason to predict it would be 50% at any point, let alone 3 months. All our numbers right now have nothing to do with reality of what actually is, and all to do with testing. You can test only 70+ year old people, that have symptoms, and like magic, the number is 10%. Test only pre teens, and like magic, the number is now .05%. If every single human being was tested, numbers would be accurate. Hell, if every sick person was tested, numbers would be close to accurate.

[phaz0rz]

It's based on the number of worldwide cases that already have outcomes. It's not based only on USA stats. Other countries aren't just testing old people.

The reason I predicted 50% within 3 months is because it's been rising by a half % per day consistently. It's just maths.

[phaz0rz]

Here's the data they're using:



Without China's questionable recovery stats it would be a lot higher. 71k of those recoveries were reported by China. People aren't recovering in the rest of the world anywhere close to the rate that people recovered in China.

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

Somewhat of an alarming trend, tbqh. 50% death rate within 3 months?

No lol......

It takes people a week or 2 to die from this. The numbers are catching up to that, and will fade in the next week or so. As more people recover.

[phaz0rz]

Originally Posted by ebaystealth1974

No lol......

It takes people a week or 2 to die from this. The numbers are catching up to that, and will fade in the next week or so. As more people recover.

People aren't recovering though. At least not yet. The vast majority of the recovered column are Chinese statistics.

No point arguing though. Time will tell.

[james13v]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

Here's the data they're using:



Without China's questionable recovery stats it would be a lot higher. 71k of those recoveries were reported by China. People aren't recovering in the rest of the world anywhere close to the rate that people recovered in China.

how is that considered a death rate.... It's only counting the people either recovered, or died??? It's not counting the people that are still sick.... how do they not matter?

Let alone the countless people that haven't even been tested. That's a scare number, nothing more.

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

No point arguing though. Time will tell.

I'm not arguing, i'm just using my eyes to see that 50% of people aren't dying.

You may be the most pessimistic person on here lol

It's why I post the Growth factor, and other things like that. To help combat your negativity.

[phaz0rz]

Because, you can't calculate a death rate for anything until cases have been resolved.

People who are still sick can either die or recover. You can't count them in the death rate until you know which they're going to do. Case fatality rates have always been calculated this way. They are based on resolved cases.

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

Because, you can't calculate a death rate for anything until cases have been resolved.

People who are still sick can either die or recover. You can't count them in the death rate until you know which they're going to do. Case fatality rates have always been calculated this way. They are based on resolved cases.

Or critical rate is 0.4%. How in THE HELL can 50% of the people die, if they aren't even in critical condiiton?

[phaz0rz]

R.E.M. - It's The End Of The World (Official Video) - YouTube

R.E.M. - It's The End Of The World (Official Video) - YouTube

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

You can't count them in the death rate until you know which they're going to do. Case fatality rates have always been calculated this way. They are based on resolved cases.

We KNOW 50% of the people are never going to die from this, BECAUSE 50% of people aren't dying lol.

If the first person to contract the flu died, please tell me you wouldn't predict a 100% death rate for the year?

[phaz0rz]

No, I wouldn't. Me no stupid. I would wait until there are tens of thousands of case statistics to make an educated guess.

90603 recovered worldwide - 71266 china recovered = 19337 recoveries outside China
11176 deaths worldwide - 3253 deaths in China = 7923 deaths outside China

30% fatality rate and rising if you leave out China's numbers. I'm not trying to convince you of anything. Most Americans are still in the "just a flu bro" phase, but we haven't seen the end of this yet.

[james13v]

If this sickness kept people sick for months, yet the ones that died, died within days, and healthy people were able to get over it just as quickly, your numbers would be something like 80%+
Again, it's a pointless stat that does nothing more than scare people for no reason what so ever. Period.

[phaz0rz]

I'm not trying to scare anyone, lol. I only post here and I'm sure you guys are smart enough to not panic.

The New York Times just published the US Government's COVID-19 Response Plan (check it out while it's still there I guess). This is much more scary stuff than the published numbers.

[james13v]

my point still stands. It's a pointless scare number that doesn't mean much.

[JamesNorth101]

Originally Posted by james13v

how is that considered a death rate.... It's only counting the people either recovered, or died??? It's not counting the people that are still sick.... how do they not matter?

When you are measuring the recovery rate why would you count people that are not recovered?

It would be

Recovery rate = Number of people died decided by Number of people fully recovered.

The people that have not yet either recovered or passed away do not come into the statistics yet. Thats just basic maths.

50% is just an extrapolation on a current trend and in a pure mathematics world works but in real life simply doesn't. Long term the numbers should drop as the recovery period is longer than the passing away period.

There will also be a lot of people who have caught this and recovered without being counted so its going to be impossible to know the actual numbers.