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Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

How do you think shipping products from China will be affected by the Coronavirus? Do you think business will stop and importing from China will be halted?


Are we heading towards a global depression?

if factories are in lockdown mode,then they cant produce any goods.
If this goes on ,many companies will be affected.
AAPL

virus cant live outside a host for that long.

fear-fear it spreads quickly,fear there is no vacine.
5 millions left Wuhan before the lockdown,where did they go?
Some expatriates decide to stay ,they could get it on the plane,it is a long flight with the same air circulating

this is what the government wants to see,more manufacturing in this country.you cant defend a country with an army of ALIBABA resellers

what does the virus really do once it gets into our body?

I dont have any cure for virus,but all I know is I start coughing yesterday and I took some Solgar pills(it has an expiration date of 1/2019) and coughing is gone.
You dont have to believe me,but stock up on some high quality vitamin A ,C.

they should know by now which animal is the carrier.
4 workers checked into hospital in December,so where did they work,which stall?
if they all work for the same stall or nearby stall,they should have some idea.
Live deer,baby crocodile,wolves,hedgehog,snakes,?

The problem is not the package,but shipping.
Since most ecommerce sellers do not order large shipments,how do your Chinese vendors ship when airlines are shutting down some flights to and from China?

it has already killed more people than SARS,38 dead,1737 /7711 cases
IF YOU BELIEVE THESE STATISTICS.
Countries like Korea and Japan ,restaurants are posting signs which said NO CHINESE .
A chinese student riding a bus in London,the passenger next to him immediately walked away from him when he sat next to him.

5 millions left Wuhan before the lockdown,so they could be spearding the virus,where did 5 millions people go?

this is going to push us into a global recession,

human to human transmission -CDC

I would like to know why 5 millions left Wuhan before the lockdown,it cant be they are all going to celebrate Chinese NY with family and friends.
Also when are they going to find out which animal is the carrier,some said it is the snake?
But some said no-they have racoon dog,bears,hedgehog,deer and wolves.

sounds good,so they are carrying a special red envelope for Happy New Year,here is your corona virus

Check DHL website

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

THey said that Wuhan and the surrounding cities are contained and the majority of the ports are not affected so aside from the holiday currently, everything is running normal.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Personally I'm very concerned about my ability to restock after CNY. I don't see any reason why exports from there wouldn't be restricted if this continues.

Saw a guy yesterday say that countries will have to start relying on domestic production again, but I doubt it will go that far. :noidea:

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Ningbo has expressed that they are 100% unaffected and will resume shipping on the 5th.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Can you open packages shipped from Wuhan, China, during the coronavirus outbreak?

When Brandon Banks' new jacket arrived on his doorstep Friday, the origin on the shipping label caught his eye: Wuhan, China.

FLORISSANT, Mo. — It was an offer Brandon Banks couldn't refuse.

"This is kind of the thing that popped up on my Facebook feed," he said pointing to a photo of the roughly $50 bomber-style jacket he found online.

He purchased the jacket in November, but when it finally arrived Friday the origin on the shipping label caught his eye.

"Oh, Wuhan, China," Banks said. "Immediately I'm like 'that's the place where it's ground zero for the coronavirus.'"

With a family that includes two young children, Banks said the package never made it through the front door.

He reached out to the CDC, but the agency didn't give him a definite timeline about when he could safely open the package.

So, the bright yellow mailer still sits quarantined in his garage.

"I don't want to take any chances right now," Banks said.

Medical experts tell 5 On Your Side scientists are still researching the strain from Wuhan, but they know from other coronaviruses that it typically only survives outside of the body for a matter of hours — maybe days — much shorter than transportation time from China.

"The risks are very low because of the time that has elapsed," Dr. Carole Baskin said. "Shipping takes time. Temperatures during the shipment were not conducive to the survivability of the virus on a sweater or jacket."

Banks tried to reach out to the seller, as well as Paypal since he used their service for payment.

But he said he's waiting to hear back, so the package remains unopened until he feels better about his chances or until he can "return to sender."

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/he...5-eec01485278c

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Can coronavirus arrive via packages from China?

The spread of the coronavirus is likely to impact significantly on UK importers and consumers, warns international courier services expert ParcelHero.

It says restrictions on shipments and compulsory factory closures in China’s Hubei province, which is at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, will mean significant delays on items from this Chinese manufacturing area.

And it cautions concern is spreading about the potential dangers of receiving parcels from Hubei.

Wuhan is at the epicentre of the outbreak and is the largest of 14 cities in Hubei to have been cut off from all travel. The area is a key manufacturing centre: 47% of its economy is industrial production.

Head of consumer research, David Jinks, said: “Fears about the spread of the virus beyond China through parcels’ shipments have been expressed in many key China export markets such as the USA and Malaysia.

“A US laboratory chemist who received a parcel mailed via China Post’s Wuhan facility complained to the United Stated Postal Service that such parcels could potentially spread disease ‘depending on the contents of the package’.”

He said that while ParcelHero’s live international courier services guide is not currently showing ‘significant material delays’ in shipments to or from China, he expected the situation to change.

He said: “China itself has been forced to act over the concerns of shoppers in its key export markets. China Post’s Express Mail Service (EMS) announced on Sunday that it will delay shipping orders to disinfect goods.”


https://www.petbusinessworld.co.uk/n...es-from-china-

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Latest from my supplier: they're expecting to return to work on 2/10. They're shenzhen/guangdong based

They were originally due to return on 1/31, but I guess the lockdown conditions will make it harder for Chinese workers to return to the cities.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

lol. All I can think about, is all the previous scares. Swine Flu. Ebola. Sars. Mers. Zika. Much to do about nothing.

The flu is worse. It kills 35,000 a year In America alone. This, has killed 56 people in China. Mortality rate for this is 2.9, and mainly the elderly or people with underlying health conditions

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

It's killed 132 in China, and that's just the Chinese gov't dishonest numbers. Experts in other parts of the world are estimating much worse than what they're reporting. Just going by the official numbers, the graph of confirmed cases shows classic exponential growth.

https://i.postimg.cc/LsbFn3TB/Untitled.png

It's impossible to say how bad this will get, when it's only been going on for a week and their quarantine measures don't seem to be slowing it at all.

With the number of infected people doubling every 36-48 hours, there could be over 1.5 million people infected, within 8 days.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

The seafood market thing is propaganda.. and the bat soup thing has gotten pretty offensive at this point.

Charles Lieber, the head of Harvards chemistry program, was arrested yesterday for lying about his ties to Wuhan's University of Technology. Suspicious timing.

At this point there are just enough fact checking websites trying to convince me it's not a bioweapon for me to believe it may be a bioweapon. :juggle:

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

A, C, E, and Selenium. The perfect combo!

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

just popped open 2 packages from china... god help me! lol just kidding, i did read it's live contact on surface is only a brief time, let alone 5000 miles and packaged 3-4 weeks ago

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Mortality rate for this particular virus is at least 3 times higher than regular flu. So yes there is something to be concerned about. I am sure death rate is probably higher than what the media reports. I don’t think Chinese government would be able to assess the exact number of people who have contracted the virus because all hospitals in wuhan are full and they won’t accept anyone else. Not to mention this virus’s incubation time is up to 2 weeks. While it seems like the numbers of people who die from flu each year is a lot higher, we don’t really know for sure if this virus could get out of hand and become full blown pandemic that could kill a lot more people around the world. I don’t think it is overblown, I think there is a good reason to be concerned about. Obviously if this virus was like a regular flu, nobody would be concerned.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Sars has a mortality rate of 11% and kill 774 people. This, has killed 170. So, umm, no? 36,000 people die from the flu in America, per year.

This virus currently stands at 2% mortality rate.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

The virus is still spreading exponentially. It's really too soon to say this virus is any more or less dangerous than any other virus. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next month. If the prediction chart continues to exceed expectations, it could get messy.

https://i.postimg.cc/029zptyP/estimate.jpg

IMO, comparing the number of "cured" against the number that have died (survival rate) is a more important metric here.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

3 times higher? Where did you get that? Hell, I can't even find a mortality rate stat for the flu, and I would bet any rate for this thing (around 1-3%), is a huge overestimate, since there is probably a far larger pool of people invented, but not suffering severs enough symptoms to attend hospitals.

And I mean, come on now. the regular flu kills 650,000 people per year. And that's with the huge amount of vaccinations. Imagine if there was no vaccine for the flu. in 2018, 80,000 Americans died of the flu. The flu is a much bigger threat still. And just like the flu, this is still a risk mainly to the old and sick.

If 24/7 media didn't exist, no one would be worried. The flu, is old news and no one cares anymore. But add a foreign name to something, like Zika or Ebola, and woh boy, let the headlines roll.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

so the more people infected, the lower the mortality rate seems to become lol

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

How are you reaching that conclusion? For every date on the prediction chart after 1/28, the mortality rate is 2.06%.


497/24120 = .0206 = 2.06%

16412/796000 = .0206 = 2.06%

1178144/57140000 = .0206 = 2.06%



The 2% officially dying means little to me compared to the extremely rapid spread of the virus.



The worst part about CCP's statistics is that you're only added to the confirmed "dead" count if you were tested and confirmed to have the virus before you died. There is a severe shortage of test kits and it's very hard to get around in affected cities. Chinese doctors are prioritizing those who already have pneumonia so if you're still in the phase before pneumonia, you're sent home without being tested. There simply isn't enough test kits, hospital beds, doctors, ambulances, or anything else for them to really get this under control.



This Chinese reporter's video from Wuhan helps put thing into perspective. There's a dead guy sitting in a wheelchair about 24min in. All the rest of the hospital footage shows overflowing emergency rooms with patients literally sitting outside the hospital with an IV drip.





Translation is here for anyone interested: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus..._no_news_from/

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

(sorry for the extra spacing. The latest firefox always does that to my aspkin posts. I usually edit the post to remove the extra spaces but the forum won't let me edit that post.)

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Thank you for sharing that link. Interesting and very concerning.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Now, that's the scary part, human to human infection.

Given the suspected 14 days incubation time period, I think we're probably at the very beginning of things to come.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Lot of ppl migrate in China for work from the countryside as far as I have learned - something to consider - then the lunar new year allows for longer holiday break to go back to see friends and family...

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Bloomberg /Singapore
Several Chinese provinces have taken the extraordinary step of extending the Lunar New Year holiday to help curb the spread of the deadly coronavirus.
Now commodity traders are assessing the impact of the shutdown in the world’s biggest energy user and steel and coal producer.
Regions accounting for about 90% of copper smelting, 60% of steel production, 65% of oil refining and 40% of coal output have told companies to delay the restart of operations until at least February 10.
That will likely dent China’s output of many key commodities and may hurt its demand for raw materials, though the extent is less clear as some facilities run at least at partial utilisation during the holiday. The Lunar New Year period is disruptive even in normal years, with many factories and businesses shutting down for about a week to allow workers to travel home.
There’s usually an anticipation of a jump in manufacturing activity after the break, but that outlook is muddled amid the unprecedented extension, adding to uncertainty over the economic impact of the virus. China’s trade council said it would provide force majoeure certificates to companies that are unable to meet international commitments.
The extended holiday affects the following areas with a total population of more than 850mn:
Shanghai, Chongqing, the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia and provinces of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Hebei, Anhui, Fujian, Yunnan, Shandong, Henan and Jiangxi have said businesses need not start operations until at least February 10. Hubei province, where the virus-hit Wuhan city is located, has said the holiday will last until at least February 14.
China is the world’s biggest producer of steel and refined copper, and the regions extending holidays house the bulk of the country’s capacity.
Some steel mills in Shandong are already planning to cut output as they have trouble procuring raw materials while orders have dwindled, according to an industry report. Logistics and labour are challenged amid reports of port disruptions and transportation lockdowns.
Even if mills and smelters are able to produce, demand may be hampered by a slowdown in construction activity as workers struggle to return to their home cities. The impacted regions include most of China’s oil refining capacity, led by Shandong province, which is home to most of China’s independent processors known as teapots.
Refineries typically continue operating even during holidays because of the danger involved in shutting and starting units full of volatile chemicals.
The biggest hit could be to demand for fuels as people stop driving to work and transporting goods. Oil traders expect Chinese refiners to cut operating rates, with the teapots in Shandong seen as particularly vulnerable. The regions combined will account for more than half of China’s livestock industry, according to official statistics for the first quarter of 2018, the latest available data.
The industry has already been hit hard as African swine fever decimated pig herds across the country.
The government-mandated quarantine in Hubei province, the epicentre of the disease, is now pushing a flock of more than 300mn chickens to the “edge of death,” according to the region’s poultry association.
Almost 75% of China’s liquefied natural gas imports arrive at terminals in provinces with the extended holiday, according to Bloomberg calculations.
While they have continued to receive cargoes over the holiday period, according to ship-tracking data, some of the fuel will be distributed on tanker trucks and may be affected by road closures.
Chinese LNG traders currently see no impact on imports, but the holiday extension will likely sap factories’ natural gas consumption.
City gas and gas-powered vehicles may also be affected by weaker demand from commercial sectors.
China mines and uses half the world’s coal.
Inner Mongolia, one of the affected areas, is the biggest producing region and supplies more than 1bn tonnes a year.
Even then, the impact of the output deferment will likely be mixed.
While many mines will delay restarts due to the virus, some large mines will continue to operate, according to the country’s leading industry group.
In terms of demand, the resumption of operations at downstream industries including cement and steel will be a decisive factor

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

I was planning a trip to an Asia country for the next few weeks, had no idea where I was going, South Korea, Japan, India, Sri Lanka, or Vietnam

I will stay in Europe for the first winter in recent years

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

I had a trip planned for Vietnam in March. Fully paid for already.

I think I will not go. :(

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Can I get an oof in the chat

:rip:

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

does travel insurance cover that?

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

304 death/14380 cases so far ,I think the numbers are too low.
MA has its first case,and now NY
i wont even go to eat in a restaurant and I will shop for grocery on weekdays or weekends before the crowd.
I will avoid ethnic stores.
this is going to impact local economy if consumers dont want to go to restaurants,theatres,book stores,gift shops,travel.
Hello Fresh has been delivering meals to my home after I cancelled my trial,it looks like every time you log onto your account,it re activates your meal plans,pretty sneaky ?

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Do you play the lottery? Because if you're worried enough to change your life that much, you really should be playing the lottery, if you feel your chances are that good in life.

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

I do what I do,you do what you do.
I dont see your name on my paycheck/

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

What's a paycheck? :noidea:

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Latest data: (made small to not stretch forum)

https://i.postimg.cc/8CWBFfd4/Untitled-1.jpg

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

Interesting trip :thumb: but...decisions to be made...

Re: Do you think shipping from China will be stopped?
 

You receive a paycheck? Guess you're not very good at this ebay thing huh. Nor very good at understanding my point. Or understanding jokes. or just, understanding. Clearly I didn't actually imply you should play the actual lottery, with " your paycheck", but just mocking your complete lack of understanding about statistics and probability