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  #1035  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

False negative rates are somewhere around 30%. How many false positives are there? They don't seem to talk about such things. If you google, only false negatives come up. Why? Because a false positive is only bad for the patient, so why would anyone else care? False negatives are bad for everyone else.
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  #1036  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by phaz0rz View Post
Yeah, yeah, I'm not a doctor. But I've been studying since this started taking off in December and I've learned a few things.



(last sentence)

I'm dumb, but I'll try to explain my reasoning for that statement. Countries have been trying (without success) to develop a vaccine for SARS-CoV since 2003. Why would we all of a sudden have the capability of developing a vaccine for SARS' older brother, SARS-CoV-2? Another good example would be MERS. It has a ~30% fatality rate, so there would definitely be incentive to develop a vaccine for it if it were possible, but that's not something we've been able to do, as of yet.

Another thing is the mutation rate. There are already dozens of mutations after a few months of circulation, with 2 known strains. With it mutating so quickly it would be impossible to predict which mutation would need to be vaccinated against for the next season. But that's irrelevant anyway, because the very nature of coronaviruses makes them impossible to vaccinate against.

EDIT: Correction - there are already thousands of mutations going around https://nextstrain.org/ncov
Well, at least the odds of the virus mutating in such a way that it actually becomes more lethal or contagious, aren't very high.
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  #1037  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by tinsoldier View Post
Smallpox has been pretty well managed, if mankind decided to tackle CV19 to achieve the same results I suspect they will.

Maybe divert the efforts being put into finding a 'cure' for AIDS into this more pressing illness.

As I've said before, something needs to thin out the population, we're heading towards standing room only at an alarming rate.

The shame with this virus is it isn't targeting the parts of the population that could do with a good cull.
as soon as covid has a fatality rate of 30%, and the majority of survivors having deep pitted scars on their face, I'm sure we would manage this virus just as well as smallpox lol

As far as population sizes. No, no we aren't heading for standing room only. It all comes down to logistics. If we really wanted to, we could double our population and still have enough resources to spare. But that would require global communism, that actually works. Look at America. We throw away half our food lol.

There is more than enough for what we need. But not enough for what we want.
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  #1038  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by james13v View Post
There is more than enough for what we need. But not enough for what we want.
Consumerism is one of our biggest downfalls.

Unfortunately, most of us here live off the consumerism of others lol. I hate it, but it feeds me.
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  #1039  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by tinsoldier View Post
I'm still comfortable will a cull

Sadly it just doesn't seem to be targetting those who's numbers need it.
You may get your wish i don't think this is going away anytime soon.
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  #1040  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by tinsoldier View Post
I'm still comfortable will a cull

Sadly it just doesn't seem to be targetting those who's numbers need it.
Well... in America the homeless, just above homeless and poor Indian reservations are getting beat up pretty badly. Not saying they need a purge or anything like that but those groups of people are not exactly the most contributing members of society as a whole.
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  #1041  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by yankee View Post
Well... in America the homeless, just above homeless and poor Indian reservations are getting beat up pretty badly. Not saying they need a purge or anything like that but those groups of people are not exactly the most contributing members of society as a whole.
Ooooh - dangerous



First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
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  #1042  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

I wish it mostly attacked politicians. A good purge on both sides of the fence would not be a bad thing.
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  #1043  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

No doubt......
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  #1044  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigblackdog View Post
Ooooh - dangerous



First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.
I get where you're going with this, but it's not exactly the best example to use. The "they" here is a virus.
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  #1045  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by james13v View Post
I get where you're going with this, but it's not exactly the best example to use. The "they" here is a virus.
There is no protest, cast of votes, throw of punches or pulling of a trigger that is going to change the “they” on this one.

Last edited by yankee; 04-07-2020 at 01:26 PM.
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  #1046  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Woah. 1400+ deaths today so far in USA.

This would equate to over a half million deaths in a years time in the US alone, and the number of deaths being reported is still going up almost every day.

Theoretically, at this rate, we are going to lose millions of Americans.

Something's afoot - I just don't know what. If you think nothing is wrong here.. explain China.
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Last edited by phaz0rz; 04-07-2020 at 01:43 PM.
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  #1047  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

The deaths will peak in a few days, then start going down. But only because we are staying home.

The approximate projected number of cases for April 4th were 1.6 million, but since we've shut everything down, we missed it by a mile.
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  #1048  
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Default Re: Corona Virus

April 16th numbers were 50ish million. Doesn't take a genius to calculate the number of dead with a 2% death rate :(
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  #1049  
Old 04-07-2020
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Trump is going to ask for money to revive small business,and talks about round II on stimulus program is making the stock market happy,happy.
instead of Stimulus,we should call it Zombie,what would the small business owners do with the money,?
he will pay his landlord so landlord will save the bank,he will go to his store to avoid his wife nagging,he would just watch some TV or bite his nails as he would have no walkin business,you call this stimulus?
watch it now,Trump is taking center stage

how do people know when this is going to end,hedge fund managers,wall street sell side analysts,politicians all said it will be over by June?

did anyone find out what animal(or human) is the carrier of the virus?

who are you to tell me what to do and what not to do?
The sun set on the British Commonwelath longlong time ago!

did they ever find out what /which is the carrier?
Pangola,pig,snake,camel,racccon dog,deer,??

Quote:
Originally Posted by yankee View Post
I find it amazing how strong the USA is durring this world wide crisis. China is doing everything it can to keep its head above water. Seems like my positive exchange the past months soon will evaporate again. https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-e...vert-financial
what do you mean by strong?
Flooding the country with money,keep printing money?
You know we are going to see high inflation once this is over,look at gold.
A country where folks dont have $400 savings,think one day there is a war,an invasion and we have to run for our life,do you think we can fill our cars with gas using Barbie dolls,ipods,coffee pods ?
DVDs featuring the Green Hulk,?
1/3 of the apt renters have yet to pay April rent,rent is due no later than the 5th.

They have found a slightly different horse shoe bat which the Wuhan Lab captured in the cave back in 2013,different from most bats they found in the same cave which they use for SARS research,it did not say if the bat is still alive ,or dead but preserved in that lab?
this bat contains the COV19 virus,if I understand the article,it implied that there is no need for an animal carrier,it can go straight to the victim.
Long article on bats and human,bats have 30 years lifespan.
MOst bats for sale as food are fruit bats,not horse shoe bats.

Think EGGS!
Eggs are in short supply and in demand,low cost protein .

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunspot144 View Post
Like x 1 million.

Confucius say "If you're the smartest person in the room, you're in the wrong room."
Confucius never say that,but it is true when he goes horseback riding,he does not wear underwear

That article is one full page in Wall Street Journal,it is not clear if this horseshoe bat caught in 2013 is still alive in the lab or preserved.
But it also said that they have done testings on these bats,either swab their anus and from their droppings,they find virus.
The bats deepfried and eaten are the fruit bats ,they aslo carry virus but not as deadly.
Horse shoe bats are much smaller about 6 1/2 inches wide

I am serious folks!
Do your grocery shopping on weekdays or early in the morning on weekend to avoid the lines.
Yesterday (Saturday),I was looking for newspaper,all 3 major supermarkets have lines and they move very slowly.
or just order online and go pick up.
EGGS are in short supply.

start hoarding FOOD-
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sm...=mw_latestnews

eggs were not a profitable business until now,there are less chicks out there which will lay eggs.

EGGS are in short supply relative to high demand.
Before this virus,eggs and milk are not selling well,so farmers are not raising as many egg laying chicks,and now the tide has turned.
Not enough chicks to produce enough eggs .eggs are cheap protein and versatile,egg omelette,scrambled eggs,egg sunnyside up,dont forget we now have many stay at home bakers who need eggs to make cakes.
all the supermarkets here have low supply of eggs,it has been like this for weeks now,I am fond of brown eggs,some dont even carry them anymore.
Some supermarkets also claim they were losing money selling eggs but for humanitarian reason ,they eat the loss,if you believe them.
Well,there is also thousand year eggs and preserved salty duck egges

Gold is up again,soon will surpass the last high,$19xx?
Not a good omen.
Gold has almost served a purpose,you run for your life,what do you pack?
No,not collectibles or diamond or Picasso ,but gold,gold tooth,gold pens,gold bars,gold earrings,gold chains.
They are talking about another stimulus program it would be for industrials,govt wil build improve infrastructure,bridges and highways,in the mean time,lets do something with small business loan,this seems to be faltering.

As for the Chinese,those who subscribed t o a satellite service which tracked 1000 locations in China claimed China has not recovered,many places are still reeling.
China is offering a 9% export rebate for wild animals export,China exported much edible reptiles to Vietnam and some civic musks and beavers to our drug companies,dont ask me what they do with musks and beavers but they taste delicious if you brown the meat first and slow braised in dark soysauce,ginger,scallions and anise.

Smithfield has closed one of its pork processing facility as its workers getting the virus makes up the majority of cases in the area?
Tyson and other food processing companies have also closed some facilities.
The chairman of Mexico Stock Exchange 70 years old just died from the virus,he was in Vail,CO with other wealthy Mexicans recently?
One of our local garbage pick up worker just caught the virus.
It seems you can catch it anywhere,the only safe place is your home,if you dont bring anything back like shopping for grocery,accept any packages or let anyone come into your house?
Our mail carriers are now wearing masks.

Somewhere I read 30% of Americans believe this virus is lab created !

thanks for reminding us,I stay away from lettuce and do wash my veggies and I COOK them too well!

we may have to go to post office to pick up mail,and take our garbage to someplace ourselves and supermarket will be closed,all it will do is pickup/delivery,you dont get to choose which chuckroast looks better,beggars cant be choosers.

Smithfield closed 2 more pork processing plants.
I am telling you,start hoarding food now ,you dont need toilet paper if you have no food,no input,no output

oronavirus cases continue to rise nationwide with 20,000 new cases daily
There's a notable rise in new coronavirus cases in several states, particularly in populous states like California, Texas and Florida. More than 2 million Americans have been infected thus far and the national death toll is now at 115,000. Janet Shamlian reports.
35M AGO

Last edited by TGMT²; 06-14-2020 at 10:35 PM.
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  #1050  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by phaz0rz View Post
Woah. 1400+ deaths today so far in USA.

This would equate to over a half million deaths in a years time in the US alone, and the number of deaths being reported is still going up almost every day.

Theoretically, at this rate, we are going to lose millions of Americans.

Something's afoot - I just don't know what. If you think nothing is wrong here.. explain China.
The only way we'd lose millions, if every single person in this country got sick. That is literally impossible right now. I promise you, when this year is over, LESS people are going to die overall, from ANY causes, than any of the previous years.
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  #1051  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by agent006140 View Post
how do people know when this is going to end,hedge fund managers,wall street sell side analysts,politicians all said it will be over by June?
how do you define over?
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  #1052  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by james13v View Post
I promise you, when this year is over, LESS people are going to die overall, from ANY causes, than any of the previous years.

You keep saying this, and it keeps making zero sense. What do you mean?
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  #1053  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by ebaystealth1974 View Post
You keep saying this, and it keeps making zero sense. What do you mean?
I did explain it. But i'll do it again. We are in a national, and global lockdown. Less people will be dying from EVERY communicable disease. Less workplace deaths. Less accidental deaths of literally every kind. Less car accidents. Less gang related violence. There are less cops, sure, but there are also way less people outside. So less victims, and also you'll stick out like a sore thumb. This will probably be the one year Chicago and Detroit deaths will be going down lol. Less deaths due to being in a hospital, and catching something. Less medical malpractice deaths. Just about every type of death, will be going down in numbers. Except alcohol related lol. Even overdoses will go down. You might have some deaths from the millions of people going cold turkey tho lol

suicides and heart disease deaths will go up tho. But over all, I believe the total deaths by any kind, will go down.

Shall I go on, or do you get my point now
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  #1054  
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Default Re: Corona Virus

I get it, now. Time will tell!
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  #1055  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

You all sound super sure of yourselves and I don't understand why. I wish I could say with such confidence how this unprecedented situation is going to play out in the long run.

There's no need to refute my posts, lol. I pointed out in the first few pages that I'm just reporting numbers and mathematical trends. I don't pretend to know what's going on or how it will end. Just analyzing the data available to us.
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  #1056  
Old 04-07-2020
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Default Re: Corona Virus

Quote:
Originally Posted by phaz0rz View Post
You all sound super sure of yourselves and I don't understand why. I wish I could say with such confidence how this unprecedented situation is going to play out in the long run.
If we stay locked up, it's simple...the virus goes away.

But that's not what's going to happen, so it isn't very simple.
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