Forum

Is the China game over?
 

My business is 100% dependent on Chinese products (Which I think is also the case with many of you here).

If the virus keeps spreading like the fire it is now, do you think China will come to a point where all manufacturing shall be stopped in hope to curb the spread of the virus?


Are we witnessing the end of China as we know it?

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Its not going to happen

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Don't be so sure about that.
They already shut down operation in plenty of businesses over there and extensive areas are quarantined.
If this thing continues to spread it WILL have a major impact this year.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

it may just die,virus does not live long outside its host.
Many sellers on ALIBABA are either small mom and pop shops or they are just wholesalers,there may just be plenty in the warehouse,who knows?
as for mom and pop shops,they just keep making them,the problem is can they find a shipper which will deliver to you

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I think we will definitely see a huge disruption. I've had orders piling up since the 18th of January because of the new year festival. Some suppliers are back to work and processing orders but I don't think anything can ship out of the country yet. I'm not sure when that will change either. It's no fun that's for sure. I'm positive it will bounce back at some point though hopefully sooner than later

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Mathematically speaking, that's a yes - but that's if it keeps spreading. And if it does, it isn't going to be China's problem alone. China is just going to be ground zero, but there would be a domino effect across the planet in terms of infections and the global economy.

Now I do not think that it is going to happen.

The black plague fatality rate was up to 90% in some areas.
Ebola fatality rate is up to 90% as well.
SARS was pushing 10%

These infections ran out their course, and it seems the two biggest reasons were:
1. Countries devised and implemented public health interventions, including quarantine, border controls, treatment facilities, etc. This was crucial for the black plague.
2. The infection ran its course when it no longer had a large population of superspreaders (people who are far more likely to spread the virus)

Coronavirus fatality rate currently stands under 3%, so I think the world will get a hold of it.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Very unlikely this will put an end to Chinese exports dominating the world economy. I've been following the virus since day 1 but I just don't see it happening. Maybe that's wishful thinking though since I rely on Chinese exports. :/

For what it's worth though, the fatality rate certainly isn't 2%. You have to compare the number of "cured" against the number of "dead" to calculate the fatality rate since people who are currently "confirmed cases" may die. "Confirmed cases" can't be included in the statistics until they're either dead or cured.

362 dead, 536 recovered

Mortality rate = 362 / (362+536) * 100
362 / 898 = .403
.403 * 100 = 40.3% actual mortality rate.

So, 40% of people who got the virus died from it rather than recovering from it.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

420 DEAD,20,000 CASES AS OF TODAY
When are they going to identify the carrier?
Russia ban fresh food from China,US bans all Chinese from China,HK is closing terminals with China.Chinese stops eating SEAFOOD-Russian crabs,Aussie lobsters and Norwegian salmon.
They are dumping these seafood in local market.
Food delivery will come with temperature of all workers involved?

Re: Is the China game over?
 

expert in here said the infection numbers will reach it top between 5th-8th FEB whichs around this weekend with total 30000-40000 infected and less than 1000 dead cases

you have no idea how we fight this virus, 13 billion people been ordered to stay at home do nothing or in jail up on your choise for 2 weeks now.

the economy thro will be hit hard yes
but no we not game over. this virus's fatality rate is too low and most dead cases are people over 50,very rare to see younth dead.
it spreading much faster than SARS that is true
so it takes time to control thats all,it dosent has that strong power to game over any country nor the whole world.
so I suggest you keep calm and see..

I am living in a 4 millions population city 1000kms far form the virus concentration area(wuhan) and over here only 18 infection cases(1 already cured back home,17 in hospital) til today 3rd FEB. I dont even worry at all so sure shouldnt be you people around the world.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

looking for anonymous post

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Isn't that crazy?! I watched a video on it a while back, and was just like :shocked:

Re: Is the China game over?
 

This would devastate the WORLD economy, so you can bet if it ever gets to that point that other countries will step in to either move production, or help quell the total destruction of the Chinese economy

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I asked my Chinese supplier about this yesterday as I was hesitant to place an order for this month and he said there is a delay due to the virus and said they would resume shipping by the 10th or so.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Take this time to figure out other things you need to improve on with your business, a mini holiday, etc

Re: Is the China game over?
 

same thing

Re: Is the China game over?
 

10th of Feb seems to be the date, I hope it won't be pushed back again :-/

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I'm hoping as well!

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I think we all are hoping for this but I don't anything will be shipping outside of China for a while

Re: Is the China game over?
 

you want it cheap and you want it good,then you dont have too many alternatives besides China.
India,Poland,Vietnam

Re: Is the China game over?
 

What's that at all? Is it really so necessary to put this **** in this thread... :argue:

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I agree.
That racist comment needs to be removed and the user who left it either warned or outright banned.
No place for racism here. Post reported.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Someone call the wahhhmbulance! :lol:

Re: Is the China game over?
 

My supplier also said Feb 10th. Let's see what happens :)

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Seems like everybody has the same supplier :)

Re: Is the China game over?
 

LOL. I have few different suppliers. They all confirmed Feb 10th. But they are all located away from Wuhan.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I'm hearing the 10th, as well, from most of my contacts over their.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Latest from supplier - the 18th is now the soonest they can get anything out. CNY is coming to an end but nobody is able to return to work.

It's now gone from 1/31 -> 2/10 -> 2/18


eBay is about to be DEAD.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I have seen today too some one are about starting the 18 fo febraury,
on ebay are decreasing the availability of various items

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Man I really hope it’s not 18th. I am running super low on stock.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I've already run dry :s

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I am lucky as I sell USA sourced and made products and supply is good and abundant.

I have heard other sellers are putting the price of their products that are Chinese sourced up in price as the Chinese sellers are not flooding the market.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

for now yes, I see a lot of people going out of stock! like a lot!

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I plan to list up some long-dead inventory over the weekend. See if I can liquidate some stuff from around the office that's been sitting around for months/years without being listed. The majority of our fast-selling inventory is already sold out or critically low.

I'm not going to jack up my prices like some sellers are saying, because I actually welcome the opportunity to sell down some. Wholesale orders have been through the roof this week as other USA sellers are scrambling to find some stock. I welcome them too. Please guys buy all my stuff so I can watch my bank accounts swell to unprecedented numbers. I guess the one upside of not being able to wire any $ to China is that it just keeps piling up in bank accounts. :juggle:

Re: Is the China game over?
 

external link
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lifeb...153357408.html

Re: Is the China game over?
 

I've a very bad feeling about this whole thing :-/

Re: Is the China game over?
 

China not supplying is going to be ebay death? As a nationalist, you know, I'm almost not sorry. Maybe countries can actually go back to producing their own goods, and China will stop taxing the **** out of imports.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

China isn't going to be able to control the worlds prices anymore? Again, I almost don't feel bad. Tho I know there are going to be consequences. And it sucks for sellers that get their supplies from China. But Chinese world supply domination needed to be curbed. Sucks that people needed to die for that to happen.

Does that make me a bad person?

Re: Is the China game over?
 

Not necessarily. A rational thinker, maybe.

Re: Is the China game over?
 

AAPL just said after consulting with experts,they have decided to open their Chinese stores !
As for factories,it is hard to imagine seeing hundreds and thousands of workers coming back to work and stay from 8-5 pm,

Re: Is the China game over?
 

some would in fact say that rational thinkers are cold and callous people lol. I like facts and figures. Emotions can't come into play in so many types of situations. On the whole, I believe that China hurts global commerce. Shutting down China would also hurt global commerce, for some time. I just believe that continuing at this rate, will be worse than the other options.