Is the China game over?

[walkingupwards]

My business is 100% dependent on Chinese products (Which I think is also the case with many of you here).

If the virus keeps spreading like the fire it is now, do you think China will come to a point where all manufacturing shall be stopped in hope to curb the spread of the virus?


Are we witnessing the end of China as we know it?

[e2free]

Its not going to happen

[slokor]

Don't be so sure about that.
They already shut down operation in plenty of businesses over there and extensive areas are quarantined.
If this thing continues to spread it WILL have a major impact this year.

[agent006140]

it may just die,virus does not live long outside its host.
Many sellers on ALIBABA are either small mom and pop shops or they are just wholesalers,there may just be plenty in the warehouse,who knows?
as for mom and pop shops,they just keep making them,the problem is can they find a shipper which will deliver to you

[Skeezer13]

I think we will definitely see a huge disruption. I've had orders piling up since the 18th of January because of the new year festival. Some suppliers are back to work and processing orders but I don't think anything can ship out of the country yet. I'm not sure when that will change either. It's no fun that's for sure. I'm positive it will bounce back at some point though hopefully sooner than later

[Pandoras_box]

Mathematically speaking, that's a yes - but that's if it keeps spreading. And if it does, it isn't going to be China's problem alone. China is just going to be ground zero, but there would be a domino effect across the planet in terms of infections and the global economy.

Now I do not think that it is going to happen.

The black plague fatality rate was up to 90% in some areas.
Ebola fatality rate is up to 90% as well.
SARS was pushing 10%

These infections ran out their course, and it seems the two biggest reasons were:
1. Countries devised and implemented public health interventions, including quarantine, border controls, treatment facilities, etc. This was crucial for the black plague.
2. The infection ran its course when it no longer had a large population of superspreaders (people who are far more likely to spread the virus)

Coronavirus fatality rate currently stands under 3%, so I think the world will get a hold of it.

[phaz0rz]

Very unlikely this will put an end to Chinese exports dominating the world economy. I've been following the virus since day 1 but I just don't see it happening. Maybe that's wishful thinking though since I rely on Chinese exports. :/

For what it's worth though, the fatality rate certainly isn't 2%. You have to compare the number of "cured" against the number of "dead" to calculate the fatality rate since people who are currently "confirmed cases" may die. "Confirmed cases" can't be included in the statistics until they're either dead or cured.

362 dead, 536 recovered

Mortality rate = 362 / (362+536) * 100
362 / 898 = .403
.403 * 100 = 40.3% actual mortality rate.

So, 40% of people who got the virus died from it rather than recovering from it.

[agent006140]

420 DEAD,20,000 CASES AS OF TODAY
When are they going to identify the carrier?
Russia ban fresh food from China,US bans all Chinese from China,HK is closing terminals with China.Chinese stops eating SEAFOOD-Russian crabs,Aussie lobsters and Norwegian salmon.
They are dumping these seafood in local market.
Food delivery will come with temperature of all workers involved?

[997turbo]

expert in here said the infection numbers will reach it top between 5th-8th FEB whichs around this weekend with total 30000-40000 infected and less than 1000 dead cases

you have no idea how we fight this virus, 13 billion people been ordered to stay at home do nothing or in jail up on your choise for 2 weeks now.

the economy thro will be hit hard yes
but no we not game over. this virus's fatality rate is too low and most dead cases are people over 50,very rare to see younth dead.
it spreading much faster than SARS that is true
so it takes time to control thats all,it dosent has that strong power to game over any country nor the whole world.
so I suggest you keep calm and see..

I am living in a 4 millions population city 1000kms far form the virus concentration area(wuhan) and over here only 18 infection cases(1 already cured back home,17 in hospital) til today 3rd FEB. I dont even worry at all so sure shouldnt be you people around the world.

[Pedroalva]

looking for anonymous post

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

and a lower social credit score.

Isn't that crazy?! I watched a video on it a while back, and was just like

[prodigyace]

This would devastate the WORLD economy, so you can bet if it ever gets to that point that other countries will step in to either move production, or help quell the total destruction of the Chinese economy

[two3aight1]

I asked my Chinese supplier about this yesterday as I was hesitant to place an order for this month and he said there is a delay due to the virus and said they would resume shipping by the 10th or so.

[prodigyace]

Take this time to figure out other things you need to improve on with your business, a mini holiday, etc

[Pedroalva]

Originally Posted by two3aight1

I asked my Chinese supplier about this yesterday as I was hesitant to place an order for this month and he said there is a delay due to the virus and said they would resume shipping by the 10th or so.

same thing

[walkingupwards]

10th of Feb seems to be the date, I hope it won't be pushed back again :-/

[prodigyace]

Originally Posted by walkingupwards

10th of Feb seems to be the date, I hope it won't be pushed back again :-/

I'm hoping as well!

[Skeezer13]

I think we all are hoping for this but I don't anything will be shipping outside of China for a while

[agent006140]

Originally Posted by prodigyace

This would devastate the WORLD economy, so you can bet if it ever gets to that point that other countries will step in to either move production, or help quell the total destruction of the Chinese economy

you want it cheap and you want it good,then you dont have too many alternatives besides China.
India,Poland,Vietnam

[Stastoday]

Originally Posted by iamlmfao

china is gay i hate asians

What's that at all? Is it really so necessary to put this **** in this thread...

[slokor]

Originally Posted by Stastoday

What's that at all? Is it really so necessary to put this **** in this thread...

I agree.
That racist comment needs to be removed and the user who left it either warned or outright banned.
No place for racism here. Post reported.

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by slokor

I agree.
That racist comment needs to be removed and the user who left it either warned or outright banned.
No place for racism here. Post reported.

Someone call the wahhhmbulance!