tracking is not all that matters. If you can prove they are in possession of the item, then you would win the case.
I could prove it because they had taken pictures of it and re-listed it a few days after they left the feedback. The item is a vintage, one of a kind item, with the same exact defects. From the pictures they took in their listing you could prove 100% that it was the same item and a simple phone call to ebay would not only win the case for me as I would explain that to the resolution team member, but it would also put a negative strike on their account for attempting fraud. Trust me, any ebay customer service monkey would even be able to see that they are lying.
I explained that to the buyer, and have not heard back in several weeks.
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