Corona Virus

[ckev26]

Originally Posted by agent006140

there is shortage now,
questions-
if domestic flights ceased,what happens to USPS mail,as USPS does not have planes like Fed Exp or UPS?

Domestic flights ceased -- im sure that means people travelling on them, any mail sent is not high risk because there is no host, a virus can survive without one for some time, by the time you receive your item the risk is very low even if it was thrown in your face

[ckev26]

Originally Posted by agent006140

Dont you guys feast on Angus beef?
Some of the restaurants here serve Aussie beef.
Argentina has beef!

a lot of beef comes from south america, the hotter the climate the poorer the meat is as they do not get any fat cover and tends to be tough,
Aberdeen Angus is the highest and most expensive Beef, when you see white fat going through the muscle of the beef rather than the outside you know its good, if the beef is too dark in colour and no fat then that is bad

[phaz0rz]

In my area, you have to show up at grocery stores/walmart early to have any chance of buying essentials, fresh meat, dairy, bread, and a few other type items.

Our Walmart started limiting everybody to one UPC each for all of those items 4 days ago. That's helped a bit but they're still having a very hard time staying stocked. They've cut their hours from 24/7 to 6AM-9PM so they can have time to replenish shelves. The first hour they are open on Tuesday is now exclusively for senior citizens.

They're getting trucks every night. They have meat, toilet paper, and all of those other things people have started to hoard, but only during the first few hours each day. If you're one of the guys stopping by after you get off your 9-5, all of those items will be completely sold out by the time you get there.

It's crazy to watch, really. I stopped by yesterday after going to the post office and the only thing left in the entire meat section was a few ham steaks and some frozen salmon fillets.

Walmart execs are probably loving all this.

Supply chain issues aside, the virus continues to get worse. There is now a worldwide death rate of 15%. The United States is now reporting 677 deaths and 0 recoveries. There were 1873 worldwide new deaths yesterday and the data for today is already on track to surpass that number.

[phaz0rz]

either
a) there's a glitch in the arcgis chart I've been using
b) this is a virus like herpes that lives in you forever and can't be eliminated (for Americans)
-or-
c) there is no future for life in the US because this is the apocalypse



I'm leaning towards A.. maybe a small chance of B. I've seen reports of people testing positive after being discharged from the hospital..

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

The United States is now reporting 677 deaths and 0 recoveries.

Rest assured, Phaz, our few recovered peeps didn't UP and die all of the sudden.

We're sitting at 370 right now.

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by tinsoldier

Using your normal statistical logic, what does that tell us about the future for life in the US?

I hate when there are two smartasses, and one steals my glory!

Was gonna post the same thing...

[james13v]

Originally Posted by ckev26

Guess not many eat beef in your area, or the beef is sh*te, in the UK there is not enough agraculture land for our densly populated cities to sustain life, we reply on imports from around the globe, and yet we are exporting our prime beef to China because the farmers get a better price,

As for ground beef, i buy it for my dog, wish i stocked up on it now, worst case scenario would be to buy an Irish beef joint and dice it up.

I mean, you live on an Island lol. So yeah. Makes sense. I live in Florida. We have access to any types of meat we want.

[james13v]

Originally Posted by ckev26

Domestic flights ceased -- im sure that means people travelling on them, any mail sent is not high risk because there is no host, a virus can survive without one for some time, by the time you receive your item the risk is very low even if it was thrown in your face

But, will those planes fly JUST with post office packages, when there are no travelers?

[0bitus]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

There is now a worldwide death rate of 15%

no it isn't. It's 4.5%

[phaz0rz]

Originally Posted by 0bitus

no it isn't. It's 4.5%

I'm just here to post data. If you don't understand why that isn't correct, check my earlier posts in this thread.

[james13v]

Originally Posted by 0bitus

no it isn't. It's 4.5%

he is referring to the percentage of people that have recovered versus died. Completely ignoring everyone else. But, he will continue to post his big scary numbers, because he likes it for whatever reason

[james13v]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

I'm just here to post data. If you don't understand why that isn't correct, check my earlier posts in this thread.

No one is saying you're wrong. we are just saying that with considering that 300,000 of the 308,000 current active patients are in mild condition, your 15% scare number, is useless. Even if every single serious or critical patient dies, your number would STILL be MORE than double what it should be.

[phaz0rz]

I'm not posting any personal interpretations or trying to scare anyone.

Again, just posting data. Situation continues to get worse. We've had one of our busiest weeks ever but shipping channels are damn near stalled, so I'll be having a really hard time in about a week once the little bit of inventory we were able to get in sells out. I have a total of 18 boxes just sitting in HK waiting to be picked up.. which is the status they've been stuck in all week.

You guys can keep trying to piss me off if that's what gets you off. I'm literally just posting screenshots from a statistics website and am being called a fearmonger because of that. I'm trying to keep myself updated on an evolving situation. I'm not saying it's just a flu and I'm not saying everybody will die.

[james13v]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

I'm not posting any personal interpretations or trying to scare anyone.

Again, just posting data. Situation continues to get worse. We've had one of our busiest weeks ever but shipping channels are damn near stalled, so I'll be having a really hard time in about a week once the little bit of inventory we were able to get in sells out. I have a total of 18 boxes just sitting in HK waiting to be picked up.. which is the status they've been stuck in all week.

You guys can keep trying to piss me off if that's what gets you off. I'm literally just posting screenshots from a statistics website and am being called a fearmonger because of that. I'm trying to keep myself updated on an evolving situation. I'm not saying it's just a flu and I'm not saying everybody will die.

you're cherry picking the statistics tho. Why not include the current cases as well? Why only the stat that looks the worst?

[JamesNorth101]

When when calculating something that needs an outcome would you include cases that don't yet have an outcome?

phaz0rz isnt claiming the figures are exact recovery dates - he is simply data showing the recovery % of confirmed cases.

No it doesn't take into account current cases without an outcome or cases that may have been Corona who have recovered because that data isn't available. It would just be guessing. Its not cherry picking its literally the opposite. If you start adding in cases that do not yet have a confirmed outcome or start to guess at the number of people that have had the virus but it wasnt confirmed and have recovered the numbers because totally meaningless.

[james13v]

Originally Posted by JamesNorth101

When when calculating something that needs an outcome would you include cases that don't yet have an outcome?

phaz0rz isnt claiming the figures are exact recovery dates - he is simply data showing the recovery % of confirmed cases.

No it doesn't take into account current cases without an outcome or cases that may have been Corona who have recovered because that data isn't available. It would just be guessing. Its not cherry picking its literally the opposite. If you start adding in cases that do not yet have a confirmed outcome or start to guess at the number of people that have had the virus but it wasnt confirmed and have recovered the numbers because totally meaningless.

These numbers are already totally meaningless. Hell, most numbers associated with this are totally meaningless. We have no idea how many people are actually sick. How many people were sick, but we thought it was something else. How many people don't, or didn't know they were sick.

But considering that only 4% of the CURRENT cases are something other than mild, it's pretty reasonable to conclude that the outcomes would be way closed to 4% than the current 15%. So if we are going to talk about meaningless numbers, why show the most imposing and largest meaningless number of the bunch? Unless we test everyone, including a test to see if non sick people HAD this virus at some point, it's all meaningless gobledigook.

[JamesNorth101]

So dont read them then...

They are not totally meaningless but while an epidemic is ongoing getting actual accurate % for recovery rates basically impossible. You want to make the number as low as possible by adding as many people in as possible and that is fine, but also pointless as it just turns into a guess.

This is the only number that is provable. Everyone knows its much higher than the actual count, but its the only % that can be worked out with the current data

[JamesNorth101]

Cool - take it away then

[dan_ebay]

Originally Posted by james13v

These numbers are already totally meaningless. Hell, most numbers associated with this are totally meaningless. We have no idea how many people are actually sick. How many people were sick, but we thought it was something else. How many people don't, or didn't know they were sick.

But considering that only 4% of the CURRENT cases are something other than mild, it's pretty reasonable to conclude that the outcomes would be way closed to 4% than the current 15%. So if we are going to talk about meaningless numbers, why show the most imposing and largest meaningless number of the bunch? Unless we test everyone, including a test to see if non sick people HAD this virus at some point, it's all meaningless gobledigook.

Some countries clearly aren't declaring accurate stats for how many of their cases are serious:

Philippines: 1 serious case,572 mild cases but 3 people died today
Indoensia: 0 serious cases, 701 active cases but 3 people died today
Saudi Arbabia: 0 serious cases, 869 active cases but 1 person died today
Poland: 3 serious cases, 1015 active cases but 4 people died today.

Quite apparent that some of the 'mild' cases are dying isn't it?

[james13v]

Originally Posted by dan_ebay

Some countries clearly aren't declaring accurate stats for how many of their cases are serious:

Philippines: 1 serious case,572 mild cases but 3 people died today
Indoensia: 0 serious cases, 701 active cases but 3 people died today
Saudi Arbabia: 0 serious cases, 869 active cases but 1 person died today
Poland: 3 serious cases, 1015 active cases but 4 people died today.

Quite apparent that some of the 'mild' cases are dying isn't it?

First off, I'm talking about America, and I highly doubt American hospitals are under reporting. But lets say they are. So instead of 572 mild cases in the phillipines, they were off by 2, and it was actually 570 mild cases?

[dan_ebay]

Originally Posted by james13v

First off, I'm talking about America, and I highly doubt American hospitals are under reporting. But lets say they are. So instead of 572 mild cases in the phillipines, they were off by 2, and it was actually 570 mild cases?

No you weren't, you were quoting worldwide figures.
And No because not all of the serious cases die and they don't die straight away either so they'd be off by a lot more than 2.

I'm not saying anyone is deliberately not reporting the breakdown of their serious/mild cases, it's probably just not a priority for them to disclose that information. Iran hasn't declared any of their active cases as serious and they have 100 people per day dying.

[ebaystealth1974]

Added the last several days to the US cases Growth Factor chart.

Nice to see 2 consecutive days of only 9% growth!

Critical/Serious is currently at 2.2% of cases.