Corona Virus

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

It's pretty damn close to exponential, ebs

Maybe exponential doesn't mean what you think it does?

Exponential would be something like...
4,000 cases/day
8,000 cases/day
16,000 cases/day
32,000 cases/day
64,000 cases/day
128,000 cases/day
256,000 and so on (or even worse)

A simple doubling of daily cases.

NOT
15,000
16,100
17,000
18,000
18,900

The deaths are surely rising, but at NOWHERE NEAR an exponential rate. Thank God!

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

EDIT: Also wtf is your chart trying to show? Seems to implicate the opposite of what the reported date is showing.

It's showing whether or not growth is exponential.

If the numbers are along the red line, which is a factor of 1, it means cases are consistent. Growing by the same amount each day.

If the numbers were at 2, it would mean a doubling of cases everyday.

When it's between 0 and 1, there was a decline in cases that day, compared to the previous day.

So, even though the number of deaths are usually greater each day, the PERCENTAGE OF GROWTH seems to be dwindling down. And that is a VERY good thing.

[ebaystealth1974]

You just multiply the growth factor x the previous day's cases.

GF=1.33, then you multiply previous day x 1.33 to get that day's cases

What we DONT want to see is that number hovering up around 2

What we DO want to see is the GF number consistently going down towards 1, and then finally down to 0.

Hope it all makes sense now.

[james13v]

Originally Posted by JamesNorth101

I think it’s very much a cultural thing in that a lot of Asian cultures do believe that the masks work whereas here in the west we don’t believe it as much. The scientific evidence can be interpreted to support either argument depending on what it is they’re trying to prove

Being that it’s not an airborne virus you’re much more likely to contract the virus through touching something and then touching your face so the masks will be somewhat limited as a preventative measure.

For those that have contracted it already however if they are coughing on something the mask will catch those particles and stop the virus spreading. Even better than wearing a mask that would be for those particular people to just not go out the house

but how do the people that contracted it already, KNOW they did, unless they are the ones with obvious symptoms? People that are sick should probably stay home tho. But by the time you know you're sick, how many people have you infected?

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by james13v

But by the time you know you're sick, how many people have you infected?

That's why we're shutting shiit down, the prevent the ignorant from inadvertently spreading it to others.

[JamesNorth101]

Originally Posted by james13v

but how do the people that contracted it already, KNOW they did, unless they are the ones with obvious symptoms? People that are sick should probably stay home tho. But by the time you know you're sick, how many people have you infected?

That is why a lot of public spaces are on lockdown because you’re right people don’t necessarily know that they are ill.

It’s why governments are advising people against all but absolutely essential contact with other people Aka social distances

[phaz0rz]

Originally Posted by JamesNorth101

Being that it’s not an airborne virus you’re much more likely to contract the virus through touching something and then touching your face so the masks will be somewhat limited as a preventative measure.

I agree with you, with the exception of this point.

WHO confirmed on the 16th that covid-19 can go airborne and survive in the air. The mass denial of this fact is confusing to me. It will do more harm than good trying to convince people that direct contact is the only mode of transmission. People should be taking every precaution possible regardless.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-...ve-in-air.html

[phaz0rz]

In other news, the DOW Jones industrial average is under 20k for the first time since early 2017. Global recession incoming. A 10,000 point loss in a single month is unprecedented.

The forum isn't letting me edit my previous post, but here is another article RE airborne transmission

WHO recommends 'airborne precautions' for coronavirus - NY Post

[ebaystealth1974]

"Aerosolization occurs rarely but not never,” said microbiologist and physician Stanley Perlman of the University of Iowa. “You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.”

[phaz0rz]

Yeah, ok. And how exactly would he know? That's just some guy with an opinion to me, lol. 6/7 continents having an active pandemic lead me to believe otherwise.

[ebaystealth1974]

Because the data indicates this is NOT being spread via the air. It would be insane, like the measles. Which IS airborne. And has an R0 of something like 12 or some shiit.

[ebaystealth1974]

Only in certain, rare environmental scenarios is this being transmitted by air.

[ebaystealth1974]

We'd have to also wear safety glasses if this were truly airborne. :(

[JamesNorth101]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

I agree with you, with the exception of this point.

WHO confirmed on the 16th that covid-19 can go airborne and survive in the air. The mass denial of this fact is confusing to me. It will do more harm than good trying to convince people that direct contact is the only mode of transmission. People should be taking every precaution possible regardless.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-...ve-in-air.html

While it can survive in the air that’s not in dispute here that’s not quite the same is it being completely airborne

It’s not spreading and multiplying in the air like a fully airborne virus would. So yes it’s airborne in the sense that if you go ahead and sneeze on someone else or in proximity to them it could spread from you to them via that method but you couldn’t sneeze in the air and then someone 100 foot away get infected.

I suppose it comes down to terminology but by the strict definition it’s just not an airborne virus

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

That's just some guy with an opinion to me, lol. 6/7 continents having an active pandemic lead me to believe otherwise.

Ahh, nice edit! He appears to be more than just some guy lol

Looks at the data. You can't escape the last part of his quote.

You have to distinguish between what’s possible and what’s actually happening.

It's clear this isn't being greatly transmitted via airborne means.

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by JamesNorth101

you couldn’t sneeze in the air and then someone 100 foot away get infected.

Well, they ARE saying in certain situations, it can sometimes remain in the air for a few hours.

But like you say, this clearly isn't happening on anything outside a minuscule scale, and BY DEFINITION, is not an airborne scenario.

[phaz0rz]

Viruses need hosts to replicate. Has there ever been a virus that can multiply in the air?

It's clear this isn't being greatly transmitted via airborne means.

That's certainly not clear to me. 10k+ new cases every day suggest to me airborne transmission is definitely happening on a large scale. Do you think every new infected person was directly sneezed on by another infected person?

[JamesNorth101]

Poor phrasing from me there...

By all accounts its being spread from direct person to person or from person to object to person contact.

Handshakes, hugs, someone opening a door and then another person coming along and touching the same door handle, ATM machines key pads, picking up a tin of beans in a shop putting it back and then someone else picking it up etc. Its not happening from people sneezing on each other or coughing at each other. There will be some spread through that, but its really a small %. Instead of wearing a mask people are better off wearing gloves and just not touching their face.

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

Viruses need hosts to replicate. Has there ever been a virus that can multiply in the air?

lol wut.......

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

That's certainly not clear to me. 10k+ new cases every day suggest to me airborne transmission is definitely happening on a large scale.

Then you're just not seeing this clearly.

Science says, and daily data shows us all that it's most definitely NOT. Not even close.

[ebaystealth1974]

Were this airborne, your usage of the word "exponential" would be accurate.

But it's not. Nor is your use of the word.

[ebaystealth1974]

Originally Posted by phaz0rz

Viruses need hosts to replicate. Has there ever been a virus that can multiply in the air?

Still trying to make sense of this post. A sick person, with ONE COUGH, can expel up to 2 hundred million individual virus particles.

Do you really need multiplication, when one cough puts that much virus into the air?

More proof that this isn't being spread via airborne means.

[phaz0rz]

Already over 1k for the 18th. Italy is having a very hard time.

Yes this one is from worldometers since the JH site doesn't track deaths.

meanwhile in china..