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Re: Corona Virus
 

What exactly is this based on? I mean, 10% death rate is only valid when it comes to people about 80 years old.

And even if your numbers are accurate, there is ZERO reason to predict it would be 50% at any point, let alone 3 months. All our numbers right now have nothing to do with reality of what actually is, and all to do with testing. You can test only 70+ year old people, that have symptoms, and like magic, the number is 10%. Test only pre teens, and like magic, the number is now .05%. If every single human being was tested, numbers would be accurate. Hell, if every sick person was tested, numbers would be close to accurate.

Re: Corona Virus
 

It's based on the number of worldwide cases that already have outcomes. It's not based only on USA stats. Other countries aren't just testing old people.

The reason I predicted 50% within 3 months is because it's been rising by a half % per day consistently. It's just maths.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Here's the data they're using:

https://i.postimg.cc/9FJv0QpM/death-rate-3-20.png

Without China's questionable recovery stats it would be a lot higher. 71k of those recoveries were reported by China. People aren't recovering in the rest of the world anywhere close to the rate that people recovered in China.

Re: Corona Virus
 

No lol......

It takes people a week or 2 to die from this. The numbers are catching up to that, and will fade in the next week or so. As more people recover.

Re: Corona Virus
 

People aren't recovering though. At least not yet. The vast majority of the recovered column are Chinese statistics.

No point arguing though. Time will tell. :typing:

Re: Corona Virus
 

how is that considered a death rate.... It's only counting the people either recovered, or died??? It's not counting the people that are still sick.... how do they not matter?

Let alone the countless people that haven't even been tested. That's a scare number, nothing more.

Re: Corona Virus
 

I'm not arguing, i'm just using my eyes to see that 50% of people aren't dying.

You may be the most pessimistic person on here lol

It's why I post the Growth factor, and other things like that. To help combat your negativity. :lol:

Re: Corona Virus
 

Because, you can't calculate a death rate for anything until cases have been resolved.

People who are still sick can either die or recover. You can't count them in the death rate until you know which they're going to do. Case fatality rates have always been calculated this way. They are based on resolved cases.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Or critical rate is 0.4%. How in THE HELL can 50% of the people die, if they aren't even in critical condiiton?

Re: Corona Virus
 

Re: Corona Virus
 

We KNOW 50% of the people are never going to die from this, BECAUSE 50% of people aren't dying lol.

If the first person to contract the flu died, please tell me you wouldn't predict a 100% death rate for the year?

Re: Corona Virus
 

No, I wouldn't. Me no stupid. I would wait until there are tens of thousands of case statistics to make an educated guess.

90603 recovered worldwide - 71266 china recovered = 19337 recoveries outside China
11176 deaths worldwide - 3253 deaths in China = 7923 deaths outside China

30% fatality rate and rising if you leave out China's numbers. I'm not trying to convince you of anything. Most Americans are still in the "just a flu bro" phase, but we haven't seen the end of this yet.

Re: Corona Virus
 

If this sickness kept people sick for months, yet the ones that died, died within days, and healthy people were able to get over it just as quickly, your numbers would be something like 80%+
Again, it's a pointless stat that does nothing more than scare people for no reason what so ever. Period.

Re: Corona Virus
 

I'm not trying to scare anyone, lol. I only post here and I'm sure you guys are smart enough to not panic.

The New York Times just published the US Government's COVID-19 Response Plan (check it out while it's still there I guess). This is much more scary stuff than the published numbers. :redface:

Re: Corona Virus
 

my point still stands. It's a pointless scare number that doesn't mean much.

Re: Corona Virus
 

When you are measuring the recovery rate why would you count people that are not recovered?

It would be

Recovery rate = Number of people died decided by Number of people fully recovered.

The people that have not yet either recovered or passed away do not come into the statistics yet. Thats just basic maths.

50% is just an extrapolation on a current trend and in a pure mathematics world works but in real life simply doesn't. Long term the numbers should drop as the recovery period is longer than the passing away period.

There will also be a lot of people who have caught this and recovered without being counted so its going to be impossible to know the actual numbers.

Re: Corona Virus
 

obviously measuring recovery rate, would be like that. And a recovery rate would be a valid number to talk about. But a death rate based only on those that have recovered, is pointless. It's a statistic that has no meaning for the average person.

Re: Corona Virus
 

I guess it would be more precise to call it the 'Current death rate v recovery rate'.

The only country that really would have an accurate number would be China as its been there for the longest and frankly that will never be something that is published.

Re: Corona Virus
 

I fully understand the numbers you are seeing and computing, but they aren't even a REMOTELY accurate representation of what's happening. Or what WILL happen. It's just like the early flu question I asked you about. We know that's not what's going to happen, based on what's actually happening elsewhere, or has happened in the past.

Those numbers are very negative and pessimistic, so maybe you should focus on the positive outlook? :)

Even in Italy, a place I think we can ALL agree on doing the worst right now, their serious/critical rate is only 7% of all active cases. And as more and more mild cases start recovering, their current 8.5% death rate will also start to decline.

Their daily death Growth Factor has already started to slow down as a % of growth each day.

Daily Deaths
3/15 368
3/16 349
3/17 345
3/18 475
3/19 472

I think there has been a big jump today, though, so we will see what happens.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Couple interesting facts from Italy's cases...

OVER 99% of their fatalities were patients with previous medical conditions.
78% of all deaths are between 70 and 89 years of age.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Italy reported 627 deaths today.

But, yeah, yeah, I understand what you're saying. I'm not trying to be the doomsday guy but I'm also not trying to be overly optimistic. I'm skeptical of everything, corona aside. Just trying to keep myself informed.

Re: Corona Virus
 

One good thing about all of this, is there are a TON of people out there totally asymptomatic. And also VERY mildy symptomatic people who won't be getting a test.

That alone will bring the TRUE numbers down. But of course will never show on a graph because they can't be accounted for.