Forum

Re: Corona Virus
 

Heya lady... speak for yourself. :heh:

Re: Corona Virus
 

The chart for deaths is showing classic exponential growth and certain people on here are still acting like this is no big deal. More older people are dying because more older people are contracting the virus.. but at this rate there won't be any old people left soon and hospitals will still be overwhelmed without enough ventilators to go around.

https://i.postimg.cc/JzDX4Z2x/3-21-death-chart.png

I'm curious how bad this will have to get to convince some of you this is far, far worse than the seasonal flu. If the current trend of new deaths increasing by 14% each day continues there will be at least 1820 deaths today. The worldwide death rate is now up to 13%. The problem is that China's artificial statistics are skewing the worldwide statistics towards a positive outcome. Excluding China's 72k recovered, the real death rate is 30.7%.

23644 recovered outside China, 10481 died outside China.

This isn't meant to scare people.. it's just an analysis of the numbers we've been given.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Updated case fatality rates by country:
France: 562 deaths, 12 recoveries - 97.9% CFR
Italy: 4825 deaths, 6072 recoveries - 44.2% CFR
Spain: 1756 deaths, 2575 recoveries - 40.5% CFR
USA: 347 deaths, 176 recoveries - 66.3% CFR
Germany: 92 deaths, 266 recoveries - 25.6% CFR
UK: 234 deaths, 67 recoveries - 77.7% CFR

Yet China's is only "4%"

Re: Corona Virus
 

again, using the number of people dead/recovered, is still completely pointless fear mongering. The people dying off, are the very old and already sick. Of course they are going to die quickly, which completely skews the numbers when accounting for all the people that haven't recovered yet, and the probably 4 times as many people that don't even know they are sick.

Ever think, that once there aren't enough old people left, the numbers will drop drastically? Because the people that are younger, have a death rate that is akin to the flu.

And yeah. more old people are dying, because more old people are getting it, because old people are more likely to get it AND to actually be affected by it enough to make people aware of them being sick. I'd bet good money that WAY more young people are getting it than old people, but we will never know that, unless we test literally everyone. Which will never happen.

Re: Corona Virus
 

I'm just showing the data. No need to get triggered. Let it scare you if you want. It's happening regardless.

I choose to keep myself informed about what's going on. I have a wife and kids to look out for. I'm not going to just bury my head in the sand and pretend like everything is OK, when everything is not OK.

Re: Corona Virus
 

USA is getting roughed up now indeed

Re: Corona Virus
 

Wouldn't this is be a great chance for the US to deflate its debts away by adopting rescue packages worth trillions of dollars?

Re: Corona Virus
 

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/02/no...d-coronavirus/

Lieber’s affiliated school, Wuhan University of Technology, does not appear to do work with viruses, according to a list of research projects on its website.

Lieber allegedly failed to disclose large sums of money he received from the Chinese government, including more than $1.5 million to start a lab at WUT and a salary of $50,000 per month.

Zaosong Zheng, a 30-year-old Chinese national who had conducted cancer research at Harvard’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and attempted to smuggle 21 vials of biological specimens out of the country.

On Dec. 9, 2019, Zheng allegedly tried to fly to Beijing with the vials hidden in a sock in his luggage. Federal agents at Boston’s Logan airport, however, stopped him, and Zheng eventually admitted that he had stolen the vials from a Beth Israel lab. He told officers that he planned to continue doing research with the samples in his own lab in China, taking credit for the results and publishing under his name.



Bat cave solves mystery of deadly SARS virus — and suggests new outbreak could occur

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

Another outstanding question is how a virus from bats in Yunnan could travel to animals and humans around 1,000 kilometres away in Guangdong, without causing any suspected cases in Yunnan itself. That “has puzzled me a long time”, says Tu.

Cui and Shi are searching for other bat populations that could have produced strains capable of infecting humans. The researchers have now isolated some 300 bat coronavirus sequences, most not yet published, with which they will continue to monitor the virus’s evolution.

And they warn that a deadly outbreak could emerge again: the cave where the elements of SARS were found is just 1 kilometre from the nearest village, and genetic mixing among the viral strains is fast. “The risk of spillover into people and emergence of a disease similar to SARS is possible,” the authors write in their paper.

Although many markets selling animals in China have already been closed or restricted following outbreaks of SARS and other infectious diseases, Yuen agrees that the latest results suggest the risk is still present.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Why not :boink:

Re: Supermarkets limit food purchase
 

Trying to instruct the wrong person :)

Re: Corona Virus
 

Are these charts factoring in that many of these people would have died anyway due to old age / underlying conditions ?

Re: Corona Virus
 

Hard to account for people that would have died anyway as its impossible to know really

A lot of them do have previous issues or are old, but that doesn't always mean that they will pass away at the same time. They could easily have lived for years

Most deaths are occurring in those that are old or with underlying conditions though.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Nope. Italy, with their 99% of people having 1-3 illnesses already... and 80 year average age... Totally makes sense to use those deaths to determine everything else lol.

Re: Corona Virus
 

I'm curious to know how many people have already died, or got better, of what everyone assumed was just a flu or cold. You know, before testing happened. Can we do post mortem testing now?

Re: Supermarkets limit food purchase
 

wait, he got banned???

Re: Corona Virus
 

All the bodies are being incinerated so that’s not going to be possible

Re: Corona Virus
 

which all bodies? The ones that are sick? Or just anyone that died?

Re: Corona Virus
 

We just went and picked up a curbside order. They out there wearing protection gear. You show your license, then pull up to a certain number, park. they go fetch your stuff.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Haha... I read the EXACT SAME study. :)

Re: Corona Virus
 

Yesterday, they had ~150 less new cases than the day before. Let's hope it starts to level off some.

Re: Corona Virus
 

As of last week, here is the breakdown of age and cases. I'm sure the current trend is roughly the same.

0–19 (123)
20–44 (705)
55–64 (429)
65–74 (409)
75–84 (210)
≥85 (144)

Re: Corona Virus
 

Of the ages and cases, tested and confirmed. How many of the 0-44 have it, and no one will ever know, because they aren't likely to be affected by it??? How many have already had it? How many of the normal cold and flu cases the past few months, were this? Unless we test everyone, AND test foe the antibodies to confirm if they EVER had it, all these numbers are just guessing games.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Those ARE the confirmed cases, as of a week ago. Not sure what you mean.

We are WAY ahead of those numbers now lol

Re: Corona Virus
 

That's my point. We are only talking confirmed, and the only ones confirmed, are the ones being tested. And the only ones being tested, are the ones showing symptoms. So, unless we test everyone, we will never know how many actually have it and how many had it. And the ones least likely to be tested, are younger people, as they are the least likely to be affected by it in the first place, nor the ones worried enough about it to fight for a test. Which is why I said, there are probably twice as many young people that have it.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Oh. Yeah, definitely.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Our Death Rate in the US seems to be significantly lower than the global rate (1.2% versus the Global 4.3%), so I've started making my own graphs of the growth factor with JUST the US numbers. To show only what is happening here in our own Country.

The graph below DOES NOT contain the numbers from the last 2 days, since we had a dip then a huge spike from NY. I wanted to see the trend from the last 2 weeks of data, here.

The average Growth Factor is 1.36 (excluding the last 2 days), which equals 40x multiplication every 12 days. Unfortunately, that means 1,660,000 cases by April 4th. And, honestly, it'll probably be more, with the way these cases are popping up.

Hopefully, we peak SOON!

We want to be BELOW ONE, which means less and less deaths every day.

https://i.imgur.com/OkweUHI.png

Re: Corona Virus
 

the more widespread the testing, the lower the rates will be. So the more we ramp up into this, the lower rates will be.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Regarding the graph...

1 = consistent daily growth ( EXAMPLE: 1000 each day)
2 = a doubling each day, which would be horrible...

Re: Corona Virus
 

UK's Shutdown after tonights announcement from the prime minister.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Yep pretty hardcore announcement tonight. Interesting times.

Re: Corona Virus
 

You guys allowed to ship packages?

Or is "for work" only people who work a 9-5?

USA won't be far behind you.

Re: Corona Virus
 

Re: Corona Virus
 

UK members, will you be able to ship and use the Royal Mail services or not?


SOLVED:

https://www.royalmail.com/d8/coronavirus-domestic

Re: Corona Virus
 

well i get my gas and lecky on keys which i need to top up at the post office so i will be posting at the same time so have to see how it goe's

Re: Corona Virus
 

Great news just in from Italy... 2nd consecutive day of less cases than the day before!


6557
5560
4789 (unless a late increase comes in after hours)

Re: Corona Virus
 

Think it might limit the post too essential items only, not that it would be easy too enforce but we will see.

Re: Corona Virus
 

problem is, the second remove the lock down, it will just start back again. And if they continue the lockdown, there won't be a country left once they are done. All those retirees that survived, will have nothing left to live on.